Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis tied for second in Iowa poll, Trump far in front

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has jumped into a second-place tie with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Iowa, a new poll shows, while former President Donald Trump is still way out in front of both his two main rivals.

The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Trump, 77, with the support of 43% of likely Republican caucus-goers, up one percentage point from what the same survey showed in late August.

DeSantis, 45, and Haley, 51, follow with each on 16% support — an increase of 10 percentage points for Haley and a drop of three percentage points for DeSantis from the prior poll.

No other candidate cracked double digits, with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) at 7% — while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie checked in at 4% each.

“You just have [Haley] rising. You have DeSantis kind of holding on for second place,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co polling firm told the Des Moines Register. “But both of them are on ground that you could only describe as shaky compared to the solid ground that Donald Trump stands on.

“If anything, he’s showing improvement.”

Nearly two-thirds, 63%, of Trump supporters said their mind was made up to support the 45th president, though 54% of all likely GOP caucus-goers said they could be persuaded to back someone other than their first choice, and only 41% of that cohort said their pick was set.

When asked for their second choice, 27% of likely caucus-goers said DeSantis, 17% said Haley, 12% said Trump, 10% said Scott and 9% said Ramaswamy.

The former president also had the largest share of “very favorable” ratings among poll respondents at 42%, compared to DeSantis’ 29% and Haley’s 25%.

“This solid ground is what makes people want to say he’s invincible,” Selzer told the Register of Trump.

Both DeSantis and Haley have plowed resources into their Iowa campaign operations in the hope of overhauling Trump in the Jan. 15 caucuses.

Haley and DeSantis have recently increased their attacks on one another over the Israel-Hamas war, and both have spent significant retail politicking time in the Hawkeye State. DeSantis’ campaign views a win in the state as a way for voters to see the race as between him and Trump, and plans to hit all 99 Iowa counties to shore up support.

“Nikki Haley is now second in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Time to start talking about a two-person race, one man and one woman,” Haley spokesperson Ken Farnaso said in response to the poll.

Former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race on Saturday after failing to gain traction in the competitive field. The poll showed Pence at 2%, down from 6% in August.

The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll surveyed 404 likely Republican caucus goers via telephone from Oct. 22 to 26 and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9%.